Will Coronavirus Variants Drive a 3rd Wave of Infections?

The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is mutating, and that's to be expected, said researchers at the University of São Paulo in collaboration with Imperial College London and the University of Oxford. Their research published on March 2, 2021, found the P.1 lineage of the SARS-CoV-2 variant first observed in Brazil has driven the second wave of infections.

The researchers estimate that the P.1 is up to 2.2 times more transmissible than earlier lineages. Also, they estimate that P.1 evades 25-61% of protective immunity arising from infection with previously circulating variants.

Dr. Nuno Faria of Imperial College London stated: “Our study describes a novel lineage of concern, named P.1 lineage, that emerged in the largest urban metropolis in the Amazon, where high rates of population immunity had been observed. P.1 accrued 17 mutations, including 3 virologically-important mutations in a region of the spike protein that interacts with the receptor the virus uses to enter human cells."

The exact trade-off between increased transmissibility and evading immunity is not currently known, said these researchers.

The P.1 lineage has been identified in over 20 countries worldwide and continues to spread. As of March 2, 2021, the U.S. CDC reported the following number of variant cases:

• UK B.1.1.7 = 2,506
• South Africa B.1.351 = 65
• Brazil P.1 = 10

The cases identified by the CDC are based on a sampling of SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens and do not represent the total number of B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineage cases that may be circulating in the USA. Studies are underway to determine whether variants cause more severe illness or are likely to evade immunity brought on by prior illness or vaccination, says the CDC.